David H. Deans

WiMAX Subscribers Have High Expectations

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 20:49:10 -0700

WiMAX operators are departing from the current cellular phone device model, according to Senza Fili Consulting. Operators are pushing vendors to provide powerful, interoperable, and affordable devices that give subscribers the freedom to choose, plus the ability to effortlessly register them to any network.

"WiMAX operators are exerting substantial pressure on vendors to ensure that they have the devices they need, at the right price, supporting the applications and features that subscribers demand," said Monica Paolini, Senza Fili Consulting.

At the same time, operators are preparing their networks to host a wide range of mobile devices that support multiple wireless interfaces, frequencies and form factors.

Based on data from a recent WiMAX Forum survey, the report shows that operators are piecing together a wise, carefully planned device strategy that will enable them to offer core services at launch and expand the subscriber choice to a wide range of innovative services.

To succeed, this retail model requires out-of-the-box interoperability among vendors and certified network equipment and user devices.

"The data collected in this survey clearly demonstrates the need for WiMAX Forum certification of subscriber devices," said XJ Wang, Sr. Director of Marketing at WiMAX Forum. "The interoperability benefit that the certification process provides allows operators to completely revolutionize their device distribution model from the outdated cellular model, to a new model for broadband wireless Internet."

The survey also revealed a great interest in roaming and multi-mode devices. In particular, WiMAX operators expect WiMAX devices to support complementary 2G/3G GSM and Wi-Fi interfaces.

"WiMAX operators need to ensure seamless service and a great user experience from day one," said Paolini. "WiMAX subscribers have high expectations, and initial data shows that they are heavy users. They expect all the reliability and coverage footprint of 2G/3G services, but with the speed and freedom that WiMAX brings to the table."

Mobile Data to Surpass Fixed Voice in U.S.

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 21:05:16 -0700

The U.S. communications market will reach $406 billion in 2014 as mobile data revenue climbs to $94 billion, surpassing fixed voice (PSTN + VoIP) during the forecast period, according to the latest market study by Pyramid Research.

The executive study provides a comprehensive view of the U.S. communications market by analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing upcoming risk factors.

The U.S. communications market, including traditional pay-TV, generated $359 billion in service revenue in 2008 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5 percent from year-end 2009 to year-end 2014, reaching $406 billion, notes Dan Locke, Senior Analyst at Pyramid Research.

Most of the growth will be attributed to mobile data and IP networks. Mobile data is already larger than fixed broadband and it will surpass fixed voice (PSTN + VoIP) in 2011, climbing from $36 billion in 2008 to $94 billion in 2014.

The study found additional growth will be driven mostly by IP networks because IPTV will grow from $2 billion in 2008 to $15 billion in 2014.

VoIP will grow from $8 billion in 2008 to $22 billion in 2014 and fixed broadband will grow from $33 billion in 2008 to about $46 billion in 2014.

The decline of the PSTN voice revenue will result from the substitution of voice platforms both as fixed operators migrate customers to all-IP voice platforms and as consumers opt for mobile voice platforms, which also will eventually turn to IP.

Mobile broadband will be a further source for growth for the U.S. telecom market due to growing popularity of unlimited data and mobile broadband plans. Revenue related to mobile broadband access for laptops and Internet access for handsets will grow rapidly at CAGRs of 28 percent and 18 percent, respectively, from 2009 to 2014.

Europe's Hybrid Broadcast-Broadband TV

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 15:24:50 -0700

A consortium of European TV industry leaders announced "Hybrid Broadcast Broadband TV" (HbbTV), a major new pan-European initiative aimed at combining the broadcast and broadband delivery of news, information and entertainment to the end consumer through TVs and set-top boxes with a Web connection.

The cross industry consortium includes broadcasters Canal+, France Televisions, and TF1, German research institute Institut für Rundfunktechnik, satellite operator SES ASTRA, as well as the software and media solutions providers ANT and OpenTV.

The HbbTV specification was developed by industry leaders to effectively manage the rapidly increasing amount of available content targeted at today's end consumer. It is based on elements of existing standards and web technologies including OIPF (Open IPTV Forum), CEA, DVB and W3C.

HbbTV products and services will provide the consumer with a seamless entertainment experience with the combined richness of broadcast and broadband. This entertainment experience will be delivered with the simplicity of one remote control, on one screen and with the ease-of-use of television.

Through the adoption of HbbTV, consumers will be able to access new services from entertainment providers such as broadcasters, online providers and CE manufacturers -- including catch-up TV, video on demand (VoD), interactive advertising, personalization, voting, games and social networking as well as program-related services such as digital text and EPGs.

HbbTV products and services will be developed for all broadcasting technologies including satellite, cable and terrestrial networks. Apparently, the first satellite demonstrations were demonstrated at IFA and IBC 2008.

Dramatic Increase in Streaming Online Video

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 18:52:09 -0700

Americans with Internet access are streaming more TV shows and movies than ever before. Recent data from an Ipsos market study illustrates that in the past 30 days, 26 percent of online Americans have streamed a full-length TV show and 14 percent have streamed a full-length movie.

This is more than two times the levels measured in September 2008. Not surprisingly, young adults 18 to 24 years of age have been the most ardent supporters of this medium.

What is surprising is just how supportive they are -- in the past 30 days, 30 percent have streamed a full-length movie and 51 percent have streamed a full-length TV show, which represent dramatic increases from last year.

The rapid rise in longer form video streaming can be attributed to the swift growth of many digital video OTT websites since last year. Hulu, in particular, has experienced heightened exposure and visitation, and has helped pioneer the transition to ad-supported free streaming of TV shows and movies.

Now that the ad-supported content model is taking off, content providers will be challenged to monetize their content through alternative fee-based methods given the acceptance of the ad-supported or free model. In addition, content providers will need to understand the appropriate level of advertising that streamers will be willing to tolerate for their content.

"The digital video revolution is no longer centered on short clips via YouTube; it is becoming an important distribution channel where any type of full-length video can be instantly accessed for immediate consumption without a fee," explains Brian Pickens, Senior Research Manager at Ipsos MediaCT.

This is not to say that digital video is replacing the TV. Currently, the average American with Internet access watches 15 hours of television per week, compared to less than two hours on their PC.

Furthermore, even among digital video users, 64 percent would rather watch hour-long dramas and half-hour comedies live on their TV than rent or purchase them, or watch them on their PC or portable device.

Why the Buying-Cycle Starts and Ends Online

Sun, 12 Jul 2009 05:57:12 -0700

Current business information has always been important to executives. In the past, they read newspapers and trade magazines for information on trends and developments. Not any more. Times have changed, and so has the source of buying-cycle influence.

According to the "Rise of the Digital C-Suite" study from Forbes Insights and Google, the Internet has become the most valuable information resource -- by far -- for U.S. executives.

Online ranked ahead of at-home and at-work contacts, personal networks, trade publications and outside consultants as an information resource. Newspapers and magazines trailed way behind.

When it comes to locating business information online, search engines were rated higher than other digital tools, such as blogs, social networking sites and subscription search services.

Although, ironically, the search results may lead executives to influential blog content that's typically ranked highly by Google and other search engines.

The most important type of information executives searched for online was competitor analysis (53 percent), followed by customer trends (41 percent), corporate developments (39 percent), technology trends (38 percent) and compliance and legal issues (26 percent).

Surprisingly, 53 percent of executives preferred to gather information themselves -- rather than delegate research tasks to lower level employees. Senior executives of all ages found the Internet to be a profoundly useful tool, according to the survey authors.

Online information sources will likely grow in importance, as executives under age 50 use new media tools more often than their older counterparts.

eMarketer, who reported on the results, says that C-suites will be transformed by this activity. I believe that Internet savvy executives will be more inclined to start and end their information discovery online, particularly in the process of procuring unfamiliar products or services.

Canada Beating U.S. Broadband Penetration

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:42:26 -0700

Worldwide broadband subscriptions will reach 466 million in 2009, representing 1.1 billion discrete broadband users, according to the latest market study by Strategy Analytics.

The total number of broadband subscriptions will surpass 800 million by 2013, implying a 14.6 percent CAGR. DSL continues to be the dominant access technology, accounting for nearly two-thirds of worldwide subscriptions.

Fiber and WiMAX, however, continue to grow share and together will account for over 25 percent of all broadband subscriptions by 2013.

The Asia Pacific region claims 41 percent of all broadband subscriptions, followed by Western Europe and then North America. North America and Western Europe likewise lead in terms of household broadband penetration.

Global penetration stood at 23 percent in 2008, and will reach 44 percent by 2013. The Central and Eastern European Region (CEE) is the fastest growing market, and is expected to grow 28 percent in 2009.

Global Broadband ARPUs will decline approximately 4 percent between 2009-2013, with service revenues reaching $291 billion by 2013.

A challenging economic environment coupled with high market maturity is putting downward pressure on subscriber growth in North America -- Strategy Analytics estimates a slight deceleration for the region.

In 2008 the North American broadband market added 6.7 million new subscribers, representing 9 percent growth over the previous year.

U.S. household broadband penetration is expected to reach 63 percent in 2009, growing to 82 percent by 2013. Penetration is significantly higher in Canada, where 79 percent of households will have broadband access in 2009.

Cable is the dominant access broadband technology in North America, accounting for over half of all household connections. Fiber rollouts by Telcos are gaining momentum, and 12 percent of broadband connections will be delivered via FTTx technology by 2009.

Service revenues for the region will grow from $46 billion in 2008 to nearly $80 billion in 2013. That said, North American broadband services still can't compete with market leaders in the Asia-Pacific and European regions -- on both competitive price and bandwidth offered.

ICT Industry Historic Market Declines in 2009

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:42:25 -0700

For the first time in its history, the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) is projecting a 3.1 percent decline in revenue for the overall global Information and Communications Technology (ICT) market in 2009 -- due to global economic conditions.

In the U.S., revenue will suffer a 5.5 percent decline in 2009.

While revenue will remain weak in 2010 -- with a modest 1.2 percent increase -- the longer-term outlook is apparently brighter. Globally, TIA projects a strong rebound for the ICT industry after 2010, citing a 6.4 percent revenue growth in 2011 and a 7.9 percent increase in 2012.

For the U.S., telecommunications revenue is expected to decrease by 6.4 percent in the next two years, but rebound by 14.4 percent during 2011-12. The effects of the current Stimulus Package, which carves out investment dollars for broadband, will enable growth throughout the ICT industry and beyond.

"Broadband will be a driver for recovery in all areas, from healthcare IT to smart grid technology, public safety networks to education, as well as for businesses and consumers," said Grant Seiffert, TIA President.

While TIA was instrumental in obtaining the $7.2 billion for broadband, other funding for energy, health IT and R&D will also spur recovery, especially in reviving some of the many jobs losses.

The sum of increased productivity and revenue amongst all other industry segments whose growth broadband deployment contributes to is often underrated and perhaps immeasurable.

Growing demand for high-volume data applications is driving all segments, say the independent, unbiased analysts at Wilkofsky Gruen Associates who help to develop the TIA Market Review & Forecast.

Despite the current recession, TIA predicts that wireless and business data revenue will grow by 73 percent during the next four years to $110 billion in 2012 from $64 billion in 2008.

Further analysis shows that economic recovery during 2011-12 will be driven by pent-up demand for ICT equipment upgrades.

Growth in data traffic will strain network capacity and stimulate investment; availability of financing will fuel investment; and broadband growth will expand the platform for VoIP and IPTV.

Will the Demand for PC-TV Tuners Recover?

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:42:23 -0700

Demand for PC-TV tuners has fallen off from the 2008 levels due to the worldwide economic recession, according to the latest study by In-Stat. Perhaps broadcast signal reception quality is also still an issue -- that was my prior personal experience with analog tuners.

The market also faces fundamental challenges, including slow consumer demand, increased competition from online television and other programming sources, and lower prices due to a shift from hybrid analog/digital tuners to digital-only tuners.

One hopeful development is that Microsoft's Windows 7 and the new version of Media Center will apparently include better connectivity solutions for PC-TV Tuners.

"Opportunities for growth will be for hybrid analog/digital tuner manufacturers to increase share by lowering prices, or for new entrants to leapfrog the analog and hybrid segments by aggressively targeting the emerging digital-only segments, albeit with lower margins," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst.

I'm actually wondering if there's such a thing as a USB Digital-Only TV tuner that delivers consistently good quality reception on a notebook computer screen -- I'll gladly write a review of a product. Contact me directly if you represent a vendor, and can provide a review sample.

Overall, selling PC-TV tuners is going to be a tougher business going forward. Will the market fully recover? We'll have to wait and see.

In-Stat's market study found the following:

- 2009 unit shipments will see a net decline of nearly 11 percent. Moderate unit growth will resume in subsequent years, driven nearly exclusively by digital-only tuner shipments.

- Worldwide PC-TV Tuner revenue likely peaked in value during 2008, at about $1.4 billion.

- The European region is by far the largest geographic market for PC TV Tuners, representing more than 50 percent of worldwide revenue.

- PC Tuner growth in Notebooks will significantly outpace other segments, which include desktops, retail sticks, and retail add-in cards.

- ATSC M&H mobile video in the U.S. may create significant upside for digital-only tuners.

IPTV Operators Adopt OTT for Differentiation

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:42:21 -0700

According to the latest market study by MRG, 2008 IPTV subscribers reached 1 million over its last forecast in late 2008, or 21.3 million, resulting in projected subscriber growth of 26.9 million in 2009 to over 81 million in 2013.

Systems vendor combined CapEx revenue plus service revenue will grow from $9.7 billion in 2009 to $25.6 billion in 2013.

Their new IPTV forecast for 2009-2013 is based on very detailed semi-annual analysis that MRG does on individual Service Providers and on a country-by-country basis -- including six IPTV CapEx products broken into 4 regions.

"The relatively strong market in 2008 caused CapEx transactions to flourish through the end of 2008," says Jose Alvear, MRG Analyst.

That anticipatory wave of orders kept vendor pipelines full all the way through 2008, but in Q1/2009, many IPTV vendors reported single-digit reduction in revenues, which is reflected in our flattened 2009 forecast.

One indicator that new subscriptions will remain strong is the Q1/2009 IPTV subscriber growth of 583,000 combined for U.S. Verizon and AT&T compared with 114k new subs added by the two largest U.S. Cable Operators, Comcast and Time Warner for the same period.

Also a signal of new growth is the number of new IPTV Operators in Eastern Europe and the Rest-of-World (ROW) region. The number of Service Providers in the ROW category went up from 64 companies to 84.

Countries like Colombia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Montenegro and the Russian federation have seen new growth in their operations, and, the ROW region will be among the fastest-growing market from 2009 to 2013 with a 29 percent CAGR.

As the IPTV market matures, many innovations are emerging, including Service Providers turning to Over-the-Top (OTT) Video applications to supplement their video-on-demand offerings.

Technical upgrades also contribute to growth, including DVRs, High-definition programming, MPEG-4/H.264, and first class system integration. Professional services growth is brought on by stronger regional partnerships of vendors and resellers that continue to move into smaller markets.

Growth in System Integration and Professional Services will also be spurred by the growth of turnkey system sales where all the components are heavily pre-integrated.

Canada Beating U.S. Broadband Penetration

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:42:26 -0700

ICT Industry Historic Market Declines in 2009

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:42:25 -0700

Will the Demand for PC-TV Tuners Recover?

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:42:23 -0700

IPTV Operators Adopt OTT for Differentiation

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:42:21 -0700

GeoActive Group USA

Sat, 28 Mar 2009 17:26:59 -0700

GeoBrava Media

Fri, 05 Oct 2007 11:37:44 -0700

GeoActive Group

Fri, 05 Oct 2007 11:35:44 -0700

Online Video Upside Continues to Impress

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 02:37:20 -0800

Are we nearing the end of online video viewer growth? Apparently, the upside seems unstoppable -- even in the current world economy. As more data about 2008 Internet usage in the U.S. is released, online video increasingly looks like one of the year's big winners.

U.S. Internet users viewed 12.7 billion online videos during November 2008 alone, up more than one-third over November 2007, according to data released in January 2009 by comScore Video Metrix.

comScore said more than 146 million U.S. Internet users watched an average of 87 videos per viewer in November 2008 -- that's 77 percent of the total U.S. Internet audience.

eMarketer also puts online video viewers at more than three-quarters of U.S. Internet users, and estimates that percentage will rise to 88 percent by 2012. For savvy online marketers, this continued growth raises the question of how much online video can be monetized.

"Although many consumers are loath to sit through ads when watching online video, they seem even less willing to pay directly for content," said David Hallerman, senior analyst at eMarketer.

"As a result, content owners and publishers are focusing on ad-funded models. Except for movies, some premium TV fare and select sports content--which remain attached to transactional models -- most TV-oriented programming has migrated to advertising-based formats," Mr. Hallerman continued.

eMarketer estimates online video advertising spending will grow rapidly to reach $4.6 billion in 2013, up from $587 million in 2008.

Europe has Highest Mobile Service Adoption

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 02:37:20 -0800

Europe as a region has the highest adoption of mobile services at 121 percent penetration and this is expected to rise to 135 percent by 2012. At these high penetrations, overall service revenue growth through the handset is expected to decline.

However, ARPU is expected to continue growing among business users. According to a new market study by ABI Research, overall business revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 4 percent, a significant statistic considering that ARPU from consumer mobile services will stay flat at a CAGR of 0.1 percent.

Says practice director Dan Shey, "Not surprisingly, data services are providing the ARPU uplift driven by the uptake of smartphones, and adoption and usage of mobile e-mail and Internet services."

However, the impact of these drivers as well as others is different for business customers in different occupational segments -- the end result is a unique set of subscriber and ARPU growth rates, penetration, and total revenue opportunity by occupation.

Shey adds, "In the current economic environment, focusing resources on the right business user segments is absolutely essential. Understanding the opportunities specific to each business sub-segment will not only allow mobile suppliers to stay solvent in 2009 but will also position them for growth in better times."

Will Americans Adopt Mobile TV in 2009?

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 02:37:19 -0800

The upcoming switchover to all-digital television broadcasting in the U.S. and other major countries will create an unprecedented opportunity for mobile TV services, according to a new market study by ABI Research.

While mobile broadcast TV was pioneered in Japan and South Korea, following the switchover traditional and mobile TV broadcasters and cellular operators in many regions will launch mobile TV services that are forecast to attract over 500 million viewers by 2013.

There's an important distinction to draw between content streamed to mobile handsets over cellular networks, and free-to-air broadcasting to mobile devices equipped with mobile TV tuners.

"Mobile TV users have yet to value the medium properly because it has not been validated as an independent product and service," says senior analyst Jeff Orr. "It has been primarily offered at the end of a long list of more preferred cellular services. However, Mobile TV will soon be positioned in a more proper role as an extension of traditional broadcast TV services."

Mobile TV viewing will not solely be on cellular handsets, but also on MIDs, and automotive infotainment systems. Once the content is available and the services launched, mobile TV will enable more classes of mobile devices that are natural fits for mobile entertainment.

Who will benefit? Content developers and providers; device vendors, especially MID and cellular handset OEMs; and service providers.

Other winners: multimedia and security software, semiconductor and network infrastructure vendors. Once mobile TV users adopt the service at high growth levels, advertisers will also climb on board to target the significant number of new mobile viewers.

ABI Research believes the timing of the market's emergence is good. As 2009 progresses, signs of economic optimism may emerge, and allow the fledgling industry to establish a foothold before the holiday shopping season.

Bleak Forecast for Mobile Phone Carriers

Wed, 11 Feb 2009 01:02:35 -0800

After 25 years of consistent market growth, the mobile phone business now faces huge challenges this year from a bad global economy and a lack of meaningful new service features, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.

The bleak cell phone industry outlook is unprecedented, with dramatic ramifications for device manufacturers, semiconductor manufacturers, infrastructure system vendors and mobile operators alike.

"While the cell phone industry has generally been unaffected by economic ups and downs, the near future is different," says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst.

The current economic slowdown is more widespread and deeper than ever experienced during the cellphone's lifetime, and has spread through Europe, Asia, and North America.

In addition, this is the first year without any new major features being added, and last year's new feature, mobile TV, has had very limited success. You may recall the mobile TV anticlimactic results from last year, and the numerous studies that profiled a consistent lack of consumer interest in the service.

In-Stat market study found the following:

- Over 1.2 billon cell phones were estimated to have shipped in 2008, but the growth rate is plummeting.

- For the next five years, cell phone semiconductor revenue will only grow at a 3.3 percent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).

- Shipments of dual-mode cellular/Wi-Fi phones shipped will quadruple from 2008 to 2012.

- The market for digital baseband semiconductors in WCDMA handsets will reach more than $6 billion annually in 2012.

- In 2008, cell phone semiconductor revenue was expected to reach more than $44.5 billion, up over 6.2 percent over 2007.